Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Nkhetheni Nesengani
Author-Name: Riaan Ehlers
Author-Name: Mish Choonoo
Author-Name: Annelie Van Niekerk
Author-Name: Theo Janse van Rensburg
Title: Likely nearterm macroeconomic impact of the implementation of the twopot retirement saving system
Abstract: This economic note seeks to explore the possible macroeconomic impacts of the recently-introduced two-pot pension system. Using the core model, we find that a moderate two-pot system scenario will add 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points (pp) respectively to GDP growth in 2024 and 2025, whilst reducing the government debt to GDP ratio by 0.5 pp in 2024/25 and by 1.0 pp and by in 2025/26. Under a high withdrawal scenario, we find that GDP growth will increase by 0.3 and 0.7 pp respectively in 2024 and 2025. The Government debt to GDP ratio will improve by 1.1 pp in 2024/25 and by 2.3 in 2025/26. The negative side is that the higher the withdrawal rates the less funds will be available at retirement age. The above impacts are relatively small when compared with pension reforms elsewhere. For instance, in Chile, rule changes allowed much larger withdrawals and pension assets declined by 14% of GDP. 
Creation-Date: 2024-08-01
File-URL: https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/special-occasional-bulletins/2024/special-o-b-e-n-2402-likely-near-term-macroeconomic-impact-of-the-implementation-of-the-two-pot-retirement-saving-system-august-2024.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
File-Function: Revision
Number: 11009
Handle: RePEc:rbz:specialoboens:11009