Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christopher Loewald
Title: Special Occasional Bulletin of Economic Notes 2401 Less harm more growth February 2024
Abstract: Macroeconomic policy in South Africa has been neither austere nor orthodox. Public spending has risen in real, inflation-adjusted, terms, in nearly every year of the post-GFC era, averaging over 3% annually, and rose especially strongly over the past three years. Real interest rates have averaged around 1%, well below neutral levels. Despite this track record, calls for higher public spending and looser monetary policy abound. But with observed low fiscal multipliers, weak potential growth and a closed output gap, a stimulus package will generate more inflation and little growth. This deepens inequality as inflation erodes incomes of poorer households and makes it harder to create labour-intensive manufacturing. With debt levels and borrowing costs at historical highs, macroeconomic de-risking  reducing debt and setting a more efficient inflation target  would increase economic growth in the short and long term, and, critically, increase the impact of economic reforms in factor, energy and logistics markets on inclusive growth. Faster sustainable growth in turn increases revenue for the upgrading of public services.
Creation-Date: 2024-02-26
File-URL: https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/special-occasional-bulletins/2024/special-occasional-bulletin-of-economic-notes-2401-less-harm-more-growth-february-2024.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
File-Function: Revision
Number: 11007
Handle: RePEc:rbz:specialoboens:11007